Dez 201509Mi
ZU on Tour
00.00 Uhr
ZU on Tour, Hertie School of Governance, Berlin
Alexander Ruser | Vortrag
Future Scenarios “Europe and the World in 2025” Foresight Analysis and Scenario Planning: Towards Key Drivers (Part I)
The objective of Foresight Analysis is not to predict the future but to generate a solid set of scenarios that can bound the range of plausible alternative futures. Foresight analysis is most useful when a situation is complex and the outcomes too uncertain to trust a single prediction. It has proven highly effective in helping analysts, decision makers, and policymakers contemplate multiple futures, challenge their assumptions, and anticipate surprise developments by identifying “unknown unknowns” – i.e. factors, forces, or players that one did not realize were important or influential before commencing the exercise.